Could Hurricane Dorian help Trump’s re-election?

Hurricanes are bad. There’s no doubt about that.

The big ones like Hurricane Dorian, which is expected to hit parts of the East Coast this week, can cause an enormous amount of physical damage — not to mention death and injury.

And hurricanes even have an immediate negative effect on the nation’s overall economy.

But can a hurricane like Dorian hurt — or even help — President Trump’s re-election next year? Will people who have sustained damage from this hurricane and others that might develop in the months ahead be spending on repairs at precisely the right time to help Trump?

The Federal Reserve has looked at the immediate impact of past hurricanes. In a report from December 2016, the Fed said Hurricane Matthew, which hit the East Coast that October, “significantly reduced consumer spending in the affected areas,” including Florida, George, South Carolina and North Carolina.

The Fed said spending quickly returned to normal once that storm passed, but “very little of the preceding shortfall appears to have been made up in the subsequent weeks.”

The biggest hurt was felt by restaurants and other businesses that rely on discretionary spending. Grocery stores, which sell necessities, returned to normal quickly.

“Severe weather events, such as blizzards and hurricanes, can temporarily disrupt economic activity,” the Fed concluded.

But what about the longer-term impact of hurricanes? Dorian hasn’t fizzled out yet, but estimates are that it will do about $25 billion in damage.

As anyone who has homeowners insurance knows, the companies that write these policies don’t pay off quickly. But when the insurance money does come in, the houses that have been damaged or destroyed by the storm will need to be fixed and the cars that get submerged in floods will have to be replaced.

If there is $25 billion in damage (and those estimates probably include areas outside the US), then at least $25 billion will have to be spent putting things back into their original shape.

Will that spending hit within six months, nine months or maybe even a year from now when the presidential election is upon us?

We’ve all been hearing about a possible recession next year. Aside from a very recent drop in manufacturing activity, the chance of an economic downturn — which is the dream of Trump haters — has been remote.

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